In the world of political polls, some are trustworthy and some are not — depending on the methods involved in conducting the surveys.


I’m not going to get into all that green-eyeshade stuff about methodology here, but you would expect that polls jointly sponsored by NBC and Marist College generally would be reliable. Ah, but we may have come upon an exception.


Even Aaron Blake of the Washington Post can barely suppress his skepticism about the RESULTS of a batch of  NBC/Marist polls that show amazingly high opposition among Republican voters for GOP presidential contenders who don’t support gay marriage:


The polls, in fact, show that about half of likely GOP caucus and primary voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina said they find opposition to gay marriage either “mostly” or “totally” unacceptable in a candidate. Fifty-two percent of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire and South Carolina said opposing gay marriage is either mostly or totally unacceptable, while 47 percent of likely Iowa caucus voters agree.


(Snip)


There’s also the possibility that the poll question confused some people. Asking people about gay marriage opposition rather than support for it brings double-negatives into the picture, possibly confusing some poll respondents. And people are more apt to respond in the negative when in doubt.


(Snip)


You also have to wonder just how much of a deal-breaker gay marriage support is. The poll asked about opposition to gay marriage — not support — so it’s a little harder to suss out just how many people would vote against a candidate who supports gay marriage. We’re guessing it’s still more of a voting issue for those who oppose gay marriage than those who support it — at least on the GOP side.


 

In the world of political polls, some are trustworthy and some are not — depending on the methods involved in conducting the surveys.

I’m not going to get into all that green-eyeshade stuff about methodology here, but you would expect that polls jointly sponsored by NBC and Marist College generally would be reliable. Ah, but we may have come upon an exception.

Even Aaron Blake of the Washington Post can barely suppress his skepticism about the RESULTS of a batch of  NBC/Marist polls that show amazingly high opposition among Republican voters for GOP presidential contenders who don’t support gay marriage:

The polls, in fact, show that about half of likely GOP caucus and primary voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina said they find opposition to gay marriage either “mostly” or “totally” unacceptable in a candidate. Fifty-two percent of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire and South Carolina said opposing gay marriage is either mostly or totally unacceptable, while 47 percent of likely Iowa caucus voters agree.

(Snip)

There’s also the possibility that the poll question confused some people. Asking people about gay marriage opposition rather than support for it brings double-negatives into the picture, possibly confusing some poll respondents. And people are more apt to respond in the negative when in doubt.

(Snip)

You also have to wonder just how much of a deal-breaker gay marriage support is. The poll asked about opposition to gay marriage — not support — so it’s a little harder to suss out just how many people would vote against a candidate who supports gay marriage. We’re guessing it’s still more of a voting issue for those who oppose gay marriage than those who support it — at least on the GOP side.