As recently as July, the Republican Party was an odds-on favorite to gain control of the U.S. Senate in this year’s mid-term elections.


Some professional handicappers still think it’s likely that the GOP will win a majority of Senate seats, but there is far less certainty in their recent forecasts.


Take, for example, what celebrated number-cruncher Nate Silver is SAYING:


When we officially launched our forecastg model two weeks ago, it had Republicans with a 64 percent chance of taking over the Senate after this fall’s elections. Now Republican chances are about 55 percent instead. We’ve never quite settled on the semantics of when to call an election a “tossup.” A sports bettor or poker player would grimace and probably take a 55-45 edge. But this Senate race is pretty darned close.


Meanwhile, some forecasters now see the numbers slightly favoring Democrats. Election Lab at the Washington Post said this morning that Dems have a 51 percent chance of retaining control of the Senate.


Poll Explorer at Daily Kos puts Democrats’ chances at 55 percent.


And Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium boldly forecasts a 70-percent likelihood that Democrats will retain control of the Senate.


 


 


 

As recently as July, the Republican Party was an odds-on favorite to gain control of the U.S. Senate in this year’s mid-term elections.

Some professional handicappers still think it’s likely that the GOP will win a majority of Senate seats, but there is far less certainty in their recent forecasts.

Take, for example, what celebrated number-cruncher Nate Silver is SAYING:

When we officially launched our forecastg model two weeks ago, it had Republicans with a 64 percent chance of taking over the Senate after this fall’s elections. Now Republican chances are about 55 percent instead. We’ve never quite settled on the semantics of when to call an election a “tossup.” A sports bettor or poker player would grimace and probably take a 55-45 edge. But this Senate race is pretty darned close.

Meanwhile, some forecasters now see the numbers slightly favoring Democrats. Election Lab at the Washington Post said this morning that Dems have a 51 percent chance of retaining control of the Senate.

Poll Explorer at Daily Kos puts Democrats’ chances at 55 percent.

And Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium boldly forecasts a 70-percent likelihood that Democrats will retain control of the Senate.