A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Pennsylvania finds Republican Tom Corbett leading his Democratic challenger, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, 50 percent to 37 percent. Three percent (3 percent) of voters prefer some other candidate and 10 percent are undecided.
Two weeks ago, Corbett held a 10-point lead over Onorato, 48 percent to 38 percent. In surveys dating back to February, support for Corbett has ranged from 45 percent to 52 percent.
In the same surveys, Onorato has earned anywhere from 26 percent to 39 percent of the vote.
When leaners are included in the new totals, Corbett’s lead grows to 14 points. With the leaners, 53 percent favor Corbett, and 39 percent are for Onorato. Two weeks ago, Corbett held a 50 percent to 39 percent edge among leaners.
Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate.
Early in any campaign, the numbers without leaners are generally more significant. Later in a campaign, the numbers with leaners matter more. After Labor Day, Rasmussen Reports will report the numbers with leaners as the primary indicators of the campaign.
This race switches from Leans GOP to Solid Republican in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.
Solid majorities of those who support both candidates say they are certain of their vote.
Corbett earns 85 percent support from the Republicans, while Onorato is backed by 69 percent of his party. Corbett leads among voters not affiliated with either major political party 47 percent to 21 percent.
The statewide survey of 750 Likely Voters in Pennsylvania was conducted on August 30, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports.
The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Additional data from the survey will be released at RasmussenReports.com/Pennsylvania.
Republican Pat Toomey continues to hold a modest lead over his Democratic Challenger, Joe Sestak, in the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania.
Like voters nationwide, A a plurality (46%) of Pennsylvania voters say that economic issues are the most important in terms of how they vote, while fiscal issues and domestic issues are a distant second with 16% each. Twelve percent (12%) say national security issues are most important to their vote.
Corbett and Onorato are almost even among voters who put economic issues first, with Onorato holding a slight 52% to 44% lead. However, he holds a dominant lead among voters who say domestic issues are most important, and Corbett holds a significant lead among voters who say fiscal issues are most important.
