Let me confess at the outset that the headline above is perhaps a bit misleading. But, of course, my objective is to attract eyeballs to this blog, and anything short of a blatant falsehood is fair play.
The headline does not say the feds are predicting a major quake for the Chicago area. What we’re talking about here is a forecast, not a prediction. There’s a big difference.
In his book “The Signal and the Noise” (above), Nate Silver, the brilliant numbers-cruncher, says this:
A prediction is a definitive and specific statement about when and where an earthquake will strike: ...